EH2R News 2005
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WARMEST
October 2005 was the warmest in history by a whopping anomaly of 1.23 C for the Northern Hemisphere, this was seen well advance in Montreal, as well with shorther notice from Resolute. October was also the wamest in history worldwide.
WD Nov 16,2005
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Experimenting with long term weather projections is known more often than not, to fail. In this case I try it as a way to prove an understanding of what oblate sun disks mean, although this method has a pretty good summer track record since 2003, let’s see if it works for winter forecasts. The pictures below show sun disks taken at the same location, from Resolute Bay Nunavut, Canada, taken at a very similar elevation (-.497 and -.503 degrees respectively) . To the left November 5 2004, to the right October 31 2005. Which one is normal?
The one to the left is what is expected for a cold Arctic climate, yet 2004-05 had a warm winter. The left picture has cold air to be found somewhere towards the sun, both pictures had the about same surface temperature (-20 and -21). The right one looks more like a warm summer sun, quite convincing and telling, it shows the scarcity of cold air in the High Arctic before the onset of the long night….
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Prediction 2005-2006 winter, to be very warm again.
Click here for details
(WD November 1, 2005)
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Success!
Differential refraction oblateness method correctly predicted warmest summer in history
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata/NH.Ts.txt
NASA link above gives June July August Northern Hemisphere temperature average the warmest in history beating 1998.
Climate in 2005 - September in historical perspective
NOAA link above states September as warmest in history, for both the World and Northern hemisphere.
Thus, summer of 2005 was the warmest in history as predicted on April 10, 2005. Montreal refraction data compiled in June-July amd August suggested a long continuance of warm air well into the fall, latest Resolute Bay sun diameters on average mainly warmer than previously measured from 2002-04. September/October Series 2 is Resolute 2005, series 1 September/October/November Resolute 2002-04.
More October data to come, but current results suggest Air over South/West Arctic Ocean, very warm , making 2005 very likely the warmest year ever for the Northern Hemisphere. Long term winter prediction will be made in early November.
Wayne
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Introducing “Toboggan Sun”
http://ao.osa.org/abstract.cfm?id=85184
In lay terms:
A sun line sunrise or sunset sliding upwards or downwards on a hill or mountain slope.
A Dutch-Canadian discovery having significant implications in many aspects of science, namely: GRIB proofing (meteorology, sunset science), history (verification of long ago explorations, deVeer, Scott, Nansen, Shakelton, Cook), archaeology (we just didn’t start seeing sun lines in the 21st century) and a whole lot of fun watching (met observing, photography). Must congratulate once again Doctor Siebren Van der Werf for confirming deVeers account once and for all, ending with certainty a 412 year mystery. WD October 1, 2005
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September 05 in high Arctic Resolute Bay
No ice in sight for the entire month of September except for a very few bergy bits (small icebergs the size of a grand piano), the bay is usually completely frozen by September 23 or so, winter is finally starting to show a little bit now, later than last year, #4 warmest year, with Bay frozen completely September 24. New ice formation is a fickle thing though and varies from year to year, winds are a key component. This warmer year shows in a way through stronger winds. Winds can keep Arctic sea water open for the longest time, it is a matter of a long day without winds and air below –5 C before the Bay can freeze completely. Refraction wise, I have gathered more data than previous very cloudy Septembers, the few perfect comparisons made showed a warmer atmosphere, as with the spring (a perfect comparison is one at exactly the same zenith distance at about the same yearly date). For a winter prediction, I need more comparisons, crucial October 25 observations will be made and a winter forecast will be done if it is not too cloudy around that date . WD Oct 1, 2005
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According to NASA (http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata/NH.Ts.txt) June-July-August warmest in Northern Hemisphere history, narrowly exceeding 1998. Northern Hemisphere August 2005 #1 for Ocean #4 for land according to NOAA
Wayne
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Summer 2005 Montreal DATA, a few surprises, but more steady warming foreseen
Read more here
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Present summer climate #1 warmest
Climate of June 2005 #1 warmest in history for the Northern Hemisphere with either land or ocean data. Flashback to April 10 2005 prediction below, this was expected, despite El-Nino inactive. Remains to be seen if El-Nino kicks in or not, but the very warm trend appears to be continuing at many locations throughout the NH. It will be interesting if there is a cooling for end of July and August, the question would be from where? And especially how? Given that much of Northern Canada, in fact all of the Arctic, except for the high Arctic, is dwelling in 20 to 30 C weather at this time. WD July 14,2005.
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Summer so far, the sun is getting bigger
Montreal data indicates an increase in sun disk sizes of 56% average to average levels compared to 2003-2004, 43% of which the sun disks had all time high in vertical diameters. Having yet experienced the warmest weather yet, this confirms very warm summer in the greater Montreal Region, easily warmer than 2003. This phenomena resonates with Resolute Bay 2005 observations, proving that the sun can be measured expanding anywhere.
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Arctic Ocean, Ice and its air above is prime
Genesis of a very hot summer, a cloud story
Click here
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Preliminary data…..NOAA declared May 2005 2nd warmest in history for the world, 2nd warmest for Northern Hemisphere . #1 For Northern Hemisphere Ocean. Slightly cooler than the record set in 2001 with average combined NH temperature anomaly of +0.98 C. If you look at the NASA graph in the link cited below, NH temperature anomaly for 2005 seems equal or warmer than1 C, however NOOA is reporting 0.65 C. WD June 16,2005
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Essay: The new days to come; stagnant weather systems
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Fascinating NASA map of May 2005 temperature extremes, the entire Arctic was warmer!
Click here!
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Preliminary Data.... update.... April 2005 #2 warmest April in history. #1 warmest in northern hemisphere history
Thank You NOAA - 05/24/05
Climate of 2005 - April in Historical Perspective
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2004 prediction of top 5 warmest year came through (read summer 2004 prediction below): it was the 4th warmest year in recorded weather history (Thank You US EPA):
Fourth Warmest Year on Record
March 2005 was the 3rd warmest month since 1880, it was during this time, that I took differential refraction shots, giving much rounder, above average vertical sun disk sizes, rounder than High Arctic 2004, 2003 and 2002 equinoxe periods respectively. This proved the great potential with using refraction as a key climate indicator while observing the sun disk through important air masses. It would be good if others would start this technique, anywhere else in the world...May 9 2005
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Prediction summer 2005: Northern Hemisphere; Likely the warmest historical summer ever
Sun differential refraction readings very much decompressed, approaching "normal" sun disk sizes found at Southern Latitudes at all altitudes except at and below astronomical horizon. Average spring time sunset skimming somewhat weaker, but this is due to warmer surface temperatures, and also the apparent near extinction of steep surface inversions, due again to the same reason: warmer near surface air... Differential refraction readings were the roundest ever in Resolute, shockingly , consistently rounder, meaning: High Arctic Upper Atmosphere much warmer than past 4 years, a massive source of cold air, the North American South West Arctic Ocean, is very much warmer, making it likely that Northern Hemisphere heat waves a near certain possibility. Details will be linked here shortly....WD April 10 2005...
Further details here.... |
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